Thursday 9 January 2014

Will the next big thing for EV happen in 2014?


I am going to rip off a statement by my good friend Paul who has been in the automotive industry for many years.  2013, the year that wasn’t.  That was his comment with regards to electric vehicles and the technical non-advancement that happened in the EV category. While more EV's and PHEV's came to market (Focus, Cmax, smart ED, etc) they all seemed to be based on the same technology ie; achieved the same range and charged in about the same time, as those already on the market. And to be honest, I don't see that changing this year either.

What we will see is a huge build out of EV charging infrastructure, with more Superchargers from Tesla, more DC Quick chargers in BC, Ontario and Quebec, and hundreds and hundreds of L2 commercial chargers from Chargepoint, us at Plug'n Drive, Add Energie, and Aerovironment. So I predict this year to be the breakout year for infrastructure.
Interestingly, Nissan is installing DC Quick chargers all over the US at many of their dealers. For now they are Chademo standard, which only charges iMiEV and Leaf, but could have the new SAE Combo standard added. Would be nice to see Nissan install DC Quicks in Canada, but I doubt it.

As for progress with EV's, my prediction for 2014 is we will just see more mfg's enter the marketplace with a PHEV/EV, sold first as a compliance vehicle in California, and then spreading to other States and Canada. Not a bad thing. The public has said they want more choice in this segment. But I think we will have to wait until 2015 to see cheaper EV's with greater range. For example, I like the Tesla vs GM rhetoric that has been flying around (mostly from GM and the media) about GM beating Tesla to the punch with a $35K, 200 mile EV. If Elon keeps his eye on Tesla, and not Mars, my money would be on Tesla. EV is all they do keeping them focused on the next step. But I wouldn't count GM out. That 200 mile range will be all about the battery. As a global company GM is in every corner of the R&D world. If someone builds a better battery, they will know about it.

But a vehicle to watch imho is the plugin hybrid pickup truck. I suppose you could argue that all the previous segment busters were new body styles and a PHEV pick up will not necessarily look any different. But segment busters were also about utility. Minivans carried more people, sport utilities extended a vehicles off road capability without looking and driving like a pickup. A PHEV pickup will satisfy all those who love pickups, but put a green spin on the segment helping the buyer feel less guilty about their purchase (surely in this day and age they must feel some guilt, surely!). This vehicle will provide greatly enhanced fuel economy (over other pickups), the versatility of a mobile power source (110V and even 240V on board power) all wrapped up in a package that does not compromise what pickup owners love...power, big rig status, hauling, towing, off road, and 4 doors (for the family don't you know).

The only company I am aware of making any progress with a vehicle like this is VIA Motors (viamotors.com) out of Utah of all places. They are focused on the fleet market hoping to prove their vehicle on the job. Contractors, utility line repair, emergency services (get rid of idling but still keep on board communications and HVAC running), farming, military etc. As we know, the pickup truck is still king and outsells every other vehicle segment in North America. For some, it is a necessity. But who wouldn't want to save money on fuel, enhance the functionality of the vehicle, have a more comfortable driving experience (reduced noise, less visits to the gas station), reduced maintenance costs all combined with (almost) guilt free driving?


Certainly the polarizing appearance of electrics like iMiEV and smart are not going to take EV into the mainstream. Tesla knew high end, high performance sports cars would not only provide proof of concept but also sell! As long as the vehicle could provide the performance and exclusivity of other high end exotics in that class. So ergo, PHEV pickups. The market is ready for the next great thing in this technically stale segment. A truck that, with good intentions, tries to keep up with the move to a sustainable world. At the moment VIA Motors is an underdog in the EV world. Time, gas prices, and the willingness of the general (pickup driving) public to believe they personally can do something to lower their carbon footprint, will tell the tale.

5 comments:

  1. I'm really enjoy to read this type of blog.It gives clear information about EV charging infrastructure.Thanks to publish such a nice blogs....

    Electric Motors Canada

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  2. I have been wrong before, but I think there is bent up market for small electric cars as second, third vehicles in a family. Even at a range of 100km. But not at prices over $30k - before incentives. On the top of this cost the multi hundred dollar EVSEs are also a deterrent. In reality most homes have 240V connection to the network. We all have 40A stove circuits and 30A dryer circuits in the house. The installation of another 240v circuit in the garage should not be a big deal. Terminate it in a 240V 30/40A receptacle and convert the charger, shipped with the car, to 120/240V for about $300. You do not need a $1000 EVSE hanging on the garage door! This in not magic. All electric cars shipped to Europe have a 240V "home charger". An other point. When was last time anyone saw an electric car ad on TV? The market is simply unaware of the true usability of electric cars to run around town and do the daily errants we all have these cars are perfect. And unbelievably cheap to operate!

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    Replies
    1. EVSE hanging on the garage door? No, I meant the garage wall - obviously.

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  3. Hi,your blog is really nice and provides a great info about auto electrical toowoomba i want to continue with your blogs and thanks to share such a nice info with us.

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